The results from our 5th survey of how the Scottish population feel about tourism and holidays during the COVID-19 Pandemic - the first survey of 2021

As we approach Easter and have just passed the first anniversary of the initial ‘Stay at Home’ restrictions from the Westminster and Holyrood Governments, how do the Scottish population now feel about the prospects for tourism and holidays in 2021?

When COVID-19 lockdown began on 23rd March 2020 in Scotland, little did any of us know how long we would be living under the restrictions of the pandemic. Back in that first lockdown period, we realised that there was a real need for information to help the Scottish tourism industry – how were Scots residents feeling about the prospect of holidays when lockdown restrictions eased, what were their concerns and would they overcome them to take a holiday? If so, where – and would the potential of a Scottish staycation appeal, especially among those more likely to take summer holidays abroad?

We launched the Scottish Tourism Index, and ran the survey across four months of 2020 – firstly in early May, when lockdown was at its toughest, to gauge opinion, then we repeated the survey a month later in early June when our pathway out had been mapped by the Scottish Government. We continued to track opinions and likely behaviours in early July, a week before the official re-opening of Scottish tourism, and then undertook a final wave for 2020 at the end of August. In this wave, we took more of a retrospective – looking back at the holidays that had been taken over the previous 6 weeks, their nature and characteristics, and the extent to which they lived up to expectations.

At that stage, we were hopeful that with possible vaccines on the horizon and case numbers relatively low, we hoped that we might not need to run the Scottish Tourism Index again. However, as we all now know, as we moved into winter, transmissions increased and the emergence of new variants have cause a second major ‘stay at home’ lockdown since the festive period. The vaccination programme does provide grounds for optimism however, and as the restrictions begin to be eased again, we felt it was important to run a fifth wave of the Scottish Tourism Index to see how Scots were feeling about holidays this year.

In this report we examine how Scots feel about travelling and holidays generally, and specifically their intentions for 2021, focusing on their likelihood to take a Scottish staycation. What might it look like, when and where are they considering and what is important to them? We also revisit the potential impacts of incoming tourism on local communities – again, comparing with last year.

The results are presented below from Wave 5, and he headline findings are summarised below:

Whilst there is room for some optimism, the latest Scottish Tourism Index demonstrates that there are a number of challenges ahead to ensure home-base holidays (staycations) can provide the tourism industry with the much needed boost it needs in 2021

Over a fifth of Scots are simply not thinking about holidays yet (22%) and 27% feel that holidays are something they won’t be planning for some time. These groups remained concerned about risks of transmission and would like to wait until the vaccine rollout and declining cases reach a level where they feel completely safe.
However, the remaining half of the population are more positive about taking a holiday this year – indeed 1 in 8 (12%) are desperate for a holiday and will take one as soon as they can. Members of this group feel they need to travel, to escape from the difficulties of the last 12 months.
Almost half (46%) of Scots are very likely or definite about taking a home holiday this year – and a further 24% are fairly likely – 7 in 10 Scots overall. This compares with around two in five likely to go elsewhere in the UK (42%), three in ten into Europe (29%) and 11% further afield.
However the uncertainty of what will be possible this year means that only a small proportion of Scots have already booked a 2021 staycation (5%) while a larger percentage (32%) are just at the planning or consideration stages.
When asked to rate the importance of a different factors if they were to take a Scottish staycation high standards of hygiene and cleanliness were rated most highly. Mitigations to aid social distancing remain important but notably less so than in the summer of 2020. More important in 2021 were reassurances that there would be a range of places open to visit and where it would be possible to eat and drink.
While 17% of Scottish staycations are expected to be taken before the end of June, a larger percentage (51%) are expected to take place between July and the end of September, and 14% in the last quarter. Reflecting the uncertainty amongst consumers, 18% of those planning a trip are unsure of when.
As in 2020, rural locations continue to hold greatest appeal with the Highlands leading the way, followed by Argyll, Edinburgh & Lothians, Aberdeenshire, Ayrshire & Arran and Perthshire.
Also reflecting demand in 2020, self-catering accommodation continues to be the most popular for holidays planned for 2021 with 47% intending to stay in this type of accommodation. Small hotels are likely to be used by 44%, guesthouses/B&Bs by 33% and large hotels by 30% - and all other types of accommodation by less than 15% in each case.
Underlying these percentages there are shifts in accommodation preferences compared with pre-COVID. Self-catering in particular now has much greater appeal (+25% swing) as do campervans (+11%).
In terms of activities undertaken on holidays, 33% of Scots are more likely to consider visiting the natural outdoors on a Scottish holiday post-COVID-19, and a similar percentage are more likely to seek rest and relaxation. More active pursuits such as walking and cycling are also more popular with +26% appeal. In contrast indoor activities such as visits to arts and cultural venues and shopping for gifts and souvenirs will still have reduced appeal.
Considering Scottish community attitudes to the re-opening of tourism, although a degree of reticence remains (23% would at most only want small numbers of visitors), compared to 2020 there is a more relaxed attitude towards visitors generally with almost half (48%) pf the population feeling comfortable and ready to welcome visitors.